23% drop in form 

©IMAGO

Despite losing Tuesday night’s Champions League clash against Liverpool by four clear goals, Bayer Leverkusen head coach Xabi Alonso insisted that the result came down to fine margins. “The result is tough, tougher than the performance,” said the Spaniard at full-time. “It was okay to good for 60 minutes, not good enough for 30 minutes.” His midfield general, Granit Xhaka, echoed the statement but was perhaps a little more blunt in his assessment: “You can’t dominate Liverpool for 90 minutes.”

While few would suggest that a 4-0 defeat at Anfield should set off alarm bells at Leverkusen, the result does now mean the self-proclaimed “Factory XI” have picked up just three victories in all competitions since the start of October. A worrying run of form that not only places Leverkusen on just seven points from four games in the Champions League table and fourth in the Bundesliga table, seven points off high-flying Bayern Munich, but also perhaps hints at a difficult second season for Alonso. And growing doubts over whether the young head coach can repeat the miracle he performed at Leverkusen last season, by doing a historic domestic double and leading the club to the Europa League final. 

How bad have Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen been this season? 

Although Tuesday night’s defeat to Liverpool may have stung Alonso and his squad’s pride, the Bundesliga side are still well placed to qualify for the next round of the Champions League. And having comfortably navigated past lower-league opposition in the first two rounds of the German Cup, the club are still on course to defend their cup title. But where the wheels seem to have certainly come off Leverkusen’s season is in the Bundesliga. As we can see in the graphic above, which shows Alonso’s record in each competition last season and this season, the biggest drop off is unquestionably in the German top-flight, where the Spaniard has averaged just 1.78 points per game. 

When compared to last season’s record-breaking average of 2.65 points per game, it constitutes to a 32.8% drop in points won per match. And when we take that average and play it out over the rest of Leverkusen’s remaining league games, it would suggest that Alonso’s team are on course to pick up just 61 points in the Bundesliga this season – which would be 29 fewer than last season’s final tally and most likely mean the club would struggle finish in the top four and qualify for next season’s Champions League, never mind get anywhere close to defending their league title. 

What’s gone wrong for Alonso and Leverkusen this season?

Undoubtedly, the biggest issue for this Leverkusen side this season is their inability to keep the ball out of their own net. Last season the club conceded on average just 0.79 goals per game in all competitions. This time around, that number has jumped up to a remarkable 1.56 goals conceded per game in all competitions, which is clearly having a huge impact on the team’s ability to win games. While Tuesday night’s heavy defeat at Anfield may be a good example of such a porous approach to defending, where it has hurt Leverkusen the most is in the Bundesliga. Last season the club took the lead 28 times in the Bundesliga and didn’t drop a single point from a winning position, which clearly showcased their capacity to keep clean sheets and march to a league title. This time around Alonso’s side have taken the lead eight times from their first nine league games of the season and gone on to drop nine points from such positions. 

There are a few reasons behind these chasms in Leverkusen’s defence appearing in the last few months. Perhaps the most obvious one is last seasons’ defensive stability being built on ageing foundations in goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky (34) and defensive midfielder Granit Xhaka (32), alongside Jonathan Tah(28), who is technically at the prime age for most central defenders but is now taking part in his twelfth, consecutive Bundesliga campaign and beginning to look like a player that has already played an immense amount of football in his career. In each instance, Alonso’s team were perhaps over-reliant on these three stars last season and this time around they have unquestionably creaked with age or simply a return to the kind of performances they routinely showcased before last season’s heroics. 

To the frustrating of Alonso and the club’s recruitment team, replacements were sought in the summer transfer window in the form of right-backNordi Mukiele joining on loan from Paris Saint-German, promising central defender Jeanuël Belocian arriving from Stade Rennais and even a potential Xhaka replacement in Alex García joining the club from Girona. But in each instance the new players have either picked up injuries that have thwarted any hope of a promising start to life at their new club, or poor performances have led to Alonso overlooking them in favour of his more established stars. 

Perhaps a more subtle but just as worrying problem for Alonso’s side is also the fact that they simply don’t have the same amount of firepower to hand. Last season Leverkusen built up a formidable reputation for breaking teams down and bagging late goals in the dying moments of games. And that certainly stacks up when we take a look at the breakdown of their goals scored at different times of matches last season, which shows that no less than 43% of Leverkusen’s total league goals were indeed scored after the 60th minute. However, this time around that number has dropped rather dramatically to just 30% of the team’s total goals. In fact, when we broaden that out to goals scored in each half, we find that Leverkusen scored 58% of their goals in the second half last season but have so far scored just 35% of their league goals in the second half of games this time around. 

Age, again, seems to be a notable culprit here when we consider what’s gone wrong in Leverkusen’s attack this season. Last season Jonas Hofmann was one of Alonso’s most trusted attacking players and bagged eight goals and 12 assists in all competitions for the club, but at 32 years of age the former Germany international has been used sparingly this season. To the extent that Hofmann has started just five games in all competitions and has just two goals and one assist to his name thus far. When we couple that with an injury to winger Amine Adli and a disappointing start for new winger Martin Terrier it means that Alonso has been extremely limited in how many forwards he has to pick form. So much so, that on Tuesday night the Spaniard technically started the game with just two forward players in Florian Wirtz and Victor Boniface, who were rather curiously supported by three defensive midfielders and a back five in defence. 

With that in mind, it’s hard to see how Alonso can turn things around in a timely fashion for Leverkusen this season. Unless the club’s ageing stars can suddenly bounce back into form or the club’s new signings can step up and be the replacements they were signed to become, it seems as though Leverkusen’s struggles may rumble on until major changes can perhaps be made in the January transfer window. Alonso is well and truly in the midst of a rut at Leverkusen this season. And a number of Europe’s biggest clubs will be curiously watching to see if he has the talent to get the club out of it before things get too drastic.