4 losses in 11 games 

©TM/IMAGO

Brazil have always been a nation synonymous with the beautiful game. They have won five World Cups – more than any other country – and they usually win it in style. Famous for tricks, flicks and samba football, Brazil are one of the most glamorous footballing nations. But right now they are in somewhat of a slump, and 11 games into the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying campaign, there is a minute possibility that they could even miss out on qualifying for the first time in their history. Remarkably, up until last November, Brazil had never even lost a World Cup qualifier on their own patch. Argentina changed that a year ago, and second-placed Uruguay will bowl up to the Fonte Nova Arena in Salvador fancying their chances too this Tuesday evening.

After their first 11 games, Brazil are fourth in the qualifying group table for the 2026 tournament, hosted by Mexico, USA and Canada. They have lost four games already, and are five points behind leaders and bitter rivals Argentina. However, if Brazil fail to beat Uruguay, and Ecuador and Paraguay win their matches against Colombia and Bolivia respectively, they could end the week in sixth spot. Usually in the South American World Cup qualifying group, the first five teams progress, with the sixth-place team to play an inter-continental play-off. But this time, with the World Cup expanded, the first six teams will automatically qualify, with seventh-place facing a play-off. That could save Brazil’s bacon. Even if Brazil make it and go on to win the tournament in 2026, it would be their joint longest ever wait to be World champions. Brazilian football is struggling, but why?

What’s going wrong for Brazil?

Tite’s Brazil were unbeaten in the 17 games they played in the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but this time around, under Fernando Diniz, and now Dorival Júnior, they have already lost four times. The five-time World Cup winners were defeated in three consecutive matches to Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina last year. They have drawn home and away to Venezuela, and lost to Paraguay. The ‘Seleção’ also exited last summer’s Copa América with a whimper. Which even caused legendary Brazilian Ronaldinho to lament their style of play. He posted: “That’s it folks. I’ve had enough. This is a sad moment for those who love Brazilian soccer. It’s getting hard to find the spirit to watch one of the worst teams in recent years, it has no respectable leaders, only average players for the majority. I’ll repeat, our performance has been some of the worst things I’ve ever seen. Such a shame.”

Full-backs have often proved to be an area of weakness for Brazil. Diniz had experimented with Renan Lodi, Guilherme Arana and Carlos Augusto at left-back and Emerson Royal, Danilo, and Yan Couto at right-back, with no one making the position their own. Dorival most recently opted for Abner Vinicius and Vanderson as his full-backs. That’s already more full-backs used than Brazil used in the entire qualification campaign for the 2022 World Cup. And it’s been a similar issue up front – since the opening 5-1 win against Bolivia in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil have scored just 11 goals in 10 games. Richarlison started the first three fixtures as striker, with Gabriel Jesus playing twice up top, and Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo also sharing the striker duty. Against Venezuela last week, Botafogo’s Igor Jesus lead the line.

Area manager for Transfermarkt in Brazil, Marcos Watts, tells us more about this current Brazil team and why they are failing to live up to expectation, “The feeling in Brazil right now regarding the national team is uncertainty, and their current situation is a mess. No player has shown the ability to lead the team when Neymar is away. Neither mentally nor technically. Without Neymar, Brazil seem lost, not knowing what to do or whom to give the ball to in moments of high tension. Vinicius and Rodrygo are ‘next in line’ for obvious reasons, but neither of them have quite met the expectations of becoming the team’s new leader – maybe because they’re too young, maybe they just don’t have it in them – only time will tell.”

The current management of Brazil is also a big talking point. Dorival was appointed Brazil coach in January after 22 years in management, following Diniz juggling managing the national team and Fluminense at the same time. “After six games, only the most loyal and hopeful Diniz supporters were still backing him.” Watts explains. “Most people believe that CBF’s strategy is already backfiring.” Dorival has failed to bring widespread improvement, but it’s not from a lack of talent. This international break, only France (€1.01b) and England (€996m) had a higher squad market value than Brazil’s €894m. But the stars simply aren’t performing, and the world’s joint-most valuable player Vinicius Jr (market value: €200m) is failing to step up.

Vinicius Junior failing to live up to being Brazil’s superstar

For many years Neymar was the ‘starboy’ of Brazil, and with that came it’s plaudits, pressure and criticism. And despite the 32-year-old’s career failing to live up to the high expectations once placed on it, he has an incredible record for his nation. He has made 128 caps, and is Brazil’s all-time top scorer with 79 goals. Add to that a further 59 assists. However, after a couple of seasons plagued by injury, Neymar hasn’t played for Brazil since October 2023, with Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr now very much carrying the weight of being Brazil’s star player. He recently became the joint most valuable player in the world at €200m. But to date, he hasn’t been able to blossom into that superstar for Brazil.

As illustrated in the graphic above, in 35 caps, Vinicius Jr has just five goals and five assists. Many felt his form for Real Madrid over the course of last season warranted him winning the Ballon d’Or last month, but he was pipped by Manchester City’s Rodri. It’s true that the 24 year old enjoyed a superb campaign with the Spanish giants, scoring 21 goals and providing 11 assists in 36 matches in LaLiga and the Champions League. But whilst he stood up in the big knockout games of Europe’s top club competition, he has failed to replicate that in the yellow of Brazil. “Vinicius is probably the biggest example of Brazil players failing to bring their club form to the national team,” Watts added. “At Real Madrid he’s arguably the best player in the world and he’s been for the last few seasons, fighting for the Ballon d’Or. But with Brazil, he looks average and struggles to lead the team into success.”

When we compare Vinicius Jr’s record with the Brazilian national team to some of the greats that came before him, we can see that the Real Madrid star is miles behind some of the nation’s legends. His record of 0.14 goals per game, is less that half the rate of Kaká’s (0.32) and Ronaldinho’s (0.34), less than four times that of Neymar’s (0.62) and Ronaldo’s (0.64), and less than five times that of Romário’s (0.77) and Pele’s (0.84). Vinicius Jr is still young at 24, and will have many more opportunities for his country, but if Brazil are to get close to becoming world champions again, he will need to find a way of showing his club form for country.