Neymar dropped by -€60m 

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Over the past two years, European football has seen many of its top stars leave the continent to go to play in Saudi Arabia. Whilst there have always been leagues outside of the European continent who have paid big money to sign players, such as the MLS, the Indian Super League, or the Chinese Super League, the influx of stars leaving to go and play in the Saudi Pro League in recent times has felt different. Not only was the division attracting the very biggest players coming towards the twilights of their careers, such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar, but a number of players in their primes were also being prized away from the top-five leagues for the lucrative wages on offer in the Middle East. Aston Villa’s Jhon Durán looks like he could be one of the latest players to make the move in a reported €75 million deal to Al-Nassr.

Ronaldo’s move from Manchester United to Al-Nassr in January 2023 appeared to properly kick things off. Or at least bring the league’s attention to many more European eyes. Six months later in the summer transfer window of 2023, a convergence of stars followed the Portuguese forward to the Saudi Pro League. The division was paying big money on transfer fees and mind-boggling wages. That summer, Saudi Pro League clubs spent €945 million, bringing in a total of 351 players. Although players often try to spin off other motivations behind their decisions, most people would probably come to the conclusion that the primary reason behind the majority of players leaving the prestigious leagues of European football for Saudi Arabia is money.

There’s no doubt some of the reported wages on offer in the division are eye-watering, and have the ability to change the lives of not only the player, but generations of his family too. However, when it comes to how it effects a player’s career prospects and their market value, then moving to the Saudi Pro League is clearly having a negative effect. This week Neymar became the latest player to leave the league, having played just seven games for Al-Hilal following his €90m move in 2023. If we go back to the start of 2023, then no player in world football has lost more market value since then than Neymar. The Brazilian’s value plummeted from €75m to just €15m, and he’s certainly not the only one.

Why playing in the Saudi Pro League harms player’s market values

As illustrated in the graphic above, three of the five players with the highest worldwide market value decreases since January 2023 have played in the Saudi Pro League. As touched upon, Neymar has fallen by -€60m, whilst João Cancelo’s (now of Al-Hilal) market value fell from €70m to €18m, and Sadio Mané’s (now of Al-Nassr) fell from €60m to €9m. Whilst other myriad factors also effected these drops, such as the ages of these players, there is a common factor of players joining the Saudi Pro League and seeing their market value fall. Moussa Diaby, 25, was signed for €60m last summer and had a market value of €55m – six months later and his market value is now €35m. In the latest Saudi Pro League market value update in December, each of the league’s 15 most valuable players lost value.

So why is this the case? Well, to date, no club has have ever paid (by modern standards) big money for a player playing in the Saudi Pro League. If we look at the record sales for players leaving the Saudi Pro League to go to other clubs outside of Saudi Arabia, as highlighted below, we can see that the record sale is the €20m Stade Rennais paid to sign Seko Fofana last summer. That’s the only deal above €11m. If we compare that to the five record arrivals to the league, which all stand at fees of €55m and over, the stark contrast is evident. The fact that clubs outside the Saudi Pro League aren’t willing to pay lucrative fees for players in that division affects the market and therefore the market values of the league’s players. There are many factors as to why clubs aren’t currently willing to pay big money for these players.

Firstly, the huge wages that the high-profile players are on in Saudi Arabia are difficult to match. Whilst players would likely expect to take somewhat of a pay-cut to return to Europe, these stars are still going to expect huge wages, which makes them less attractive to top European clubs, and therefore also affects any transfer fee in mind. The general notion for older stars that go to the Saudi Pro League is that their careers are winding down, but younger footballers that make that move could cause clubs in Europe to questions the player’s motivations.

With top clubs in Europe’s top-five leagues often trying to build the right culture with the right type of player and person within their ranks, questions may be asked, rightly or wrongly, of stars who depart during their peak years for the riches of Saudi Arabian football. Gabri Veiga was one of LaLiga’s brightest talents, and reached a market value of €30m, aged 20, at Celta Vigo in 2023. He was linked with a whole host of Europe’s top clubs, including Arsenal and Real Madrid. Instead he moved to Saudi side Al-Ahli for €30m. A decision publicly criticised by Madrid legend Toni Kroos, with the German labelling it as “embarrassing.” Veiga’s move was seen by many as a career misstep. By leaving the European spotlight, he seemingly sacrificed his chances with the Spanish national team, missing out on their Euro 2024 triumph, and disappeared from the radar of many fans and analysts. 

Tiberius Radziejewski is Transfermarkt’s Area Manager in Asia and watches the Saudi Pro League closely. He explains why he thinks there haven’t been big money moves for players leaving Saudi just yet: “One key reason for this is the fact that most players just moved to the league recently. The players signed long-term contracts with high salary,” said Radziejewski. “At the same time, the Saudi Pro League is rapidly evolving in quality. The league’s two biggest transfer records were broken in the past six months, following previous record-breaking deals just a few months earlier. Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether transfers and its fee’s at the level of Fofana & Co. will become the norm.”

There’s no reason to say that in the future, the Saudi Pro League, or any other division for that matter, can’t go on to rival Europe’s top-five leagues in terms of quality and attractiveness for the world’s biggest stars. However, it will take some time for the league to replicate the quality, traditions and prestige of the top leagues and the top clubs of European football. The current model in Saudi Arabia would probably have to be adapted too. Despite some players leaving in the primes of their careers, the majority of superstars who have left for the Middle East in the past couple of years are in their 30s.

The league’s rules changed last year so that clubs are now allowed to register 10 players who are not from Saudi Arabia, which was an increase from eight – the limit in 2023. However, eight of these 10 players must be born after 2003, which is a specific ploy by the Saudi Arabia Football Federation to attract younger players with high potential to the league. Right now, of course the money on offer is life-changing and it’s somewhat understandable why some players are attracted and make the move. Nevertheless, the affect going to Saudi has on a player’s market value and their status to European clubs should not be ignored.