485 players updated 

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With the conclusion of the season and just ahead of the FIFA Club World Cup, Transfermarkt has updated the market values of 485 Bundesliga players. While there is no change at the top where Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala and Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz remain first with a market value of €140 million, a third player has now reached the €100m benchmark: Michael Olise. While Olise is one of the best stories of the season, his teammate Harry Kane is one of the biggest losers of the update. More on that below. 

After an incredible season with 17 goals and 21 assists in 50 games across all competitions, Bayern’s Olise saw his market value increase by 25% from €80m to €100m. “Olise is the latest member of the €100m club,” Transfermarkt Market Value Coordinator Germany, Tobias Kröger, said. “An incredible Bundesliga season with 30 scorer points (12 goals and 18 assists) highlights his influence in his first season with Bayern. An argument could be made that he was one of the best wingers in the world.”

In a season in which Bayern wrestled back the league title from Leverkusen but were somewhat disappointing in Europe, where they exited the Champions League in the quarterfinals and crashed out of the DFB Pokal, big updates are rare at the Rekordmeister. Other than Olise, the players with upgrades are Aleksandar Pavlovic (+€5m to €55m), Josip Stanisić (+€4m to €32m), and Jonas Urbig (+€4m to €12m).

Bayern Munich market values: Harry Kane among many downgrades

Those four are the exception rather than the rule at Bayern Munich. Instead, the Bundesliga giants were impacted by many downgrades in this update. The player with the biggest downgrade is England captain Kane. “Due to his age, Kane will receive the biggest downgrade of his career,” Kröger said.

The English striker sees his market value drop by €15m from €90m to €75m. “He is still the most valuable player of his age category, but at the same tim,e it is also evident that he couldn’t repeat his outstanding first season in the Bundesliga,” Kröger said. After scoring 36 goals last season, Kane managed just 26 goals this season—nine of them from the penalty spot. Excluding penalties, Kane would have finished third in Bundesliga scoring this season. With all that in mind, a downgrade was unavoidable.

Kane, however, isn’t the only Bayern star with a downgrade. Joshua Kimmich (-€5m to €50m),  Min-Jae Kim (-€5m to €45m), Leroy Sané (-€6m to €32m), Kingsley Coman (-€5m to €30m),  João Palhinha (-€10m to €30m), Hiroki Ito (-€5m to €25m), and Serge Gnabry (-€3m to €22m) also saw their market values reduce. Altogether seven key players saw their market values reduce, indicating the amount of work ahead of director of sport Max Eberl and sporting director Christoph Freund, who will be tasked with adding fresh blood to an increasingly aging squad with players beyond their peak.

Bundesliga market values: In-demand strikers Ekitike and Sesko up

Among the biggest winners was rising  Eintracht Frankfurt star striker Hugo Ekitiké. The 22-year-old, in fact, could become the latest player to be sold for a significant transfer fee by Die Eintracht. “With 22 goals and 12 assists across all competitions, Ekitiké has put himself on the shopping list of Premier League clubs,” Kröger said. “His strong technique coupled with his one-v-one abilities and his size make him the type of striker who is rare on the transfer market and, as a result, in high demand.” With that in mind, Ekitiké saw his market value rise by 36.4% from €55m to €75m.

Also in high demand among Premier League clubs is RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko. “Sesko could be joining Arsenal this summer,” Kröger said. “The young Slovenian striker is ready for the next step. He is one of the most talented strikers in the world and could become one of the most prominent center-forwards over the next few years. His profile is a perfect match for the Premier League, and he is, therefore, in high demand.” Sesko’s market value is up by €5m to €70m, which matches what Leipzig will be asking for this summer from any club wanting to sign the forward.

Other players to watch with significant increases in market value include Borussia Dortmund’s Daniel Svensson (+118.2% from €5.5m to €12m), Freiburg’s Max Rosenfelder (+100% from €4m to €8m), Frankfurt’s Jean-Mattéo Bahoya (88.9% from €9m to €17m), Union Berlin’s Leopold Querfeld (+85.7% from €7m to €13m) and VfB Stuttgart’s Nick Woltemade (+76.5% from €17m to €30m). Woltemade, in particular, is a name to remember. The Stuttgart striker was crucial in his club’s DFB Pokal victory and has already been linked with the likes of Bayern Munich. The 202cm tall forward is set to feature for Germany at the UEFA Nations League finals and the U21 European Championships, where he can further increase his market value.

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).