Expert opinion 

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It is a potential final. On Tuesday, PSG will host Bayern Munich for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals. While Bayern Munich were the second-best team of the league stage, with seven wins from eight games and a goal differential of 22-8. Similar to last year, PSG had a slow start to the season, especially after a cruelling FIFA Club World Cup campaign where they lost to Chelsea in the final (3-0). But like last year, PSG have found their form and look once again like the team to beat in the Champions League this season.

So, who will hold the advantage in this exciting tie between the giants of Germany and France? Transfermarkt spoke to 2014 World Cup winner and 2013 treble winner with Bayern Munich, Philipp Lahm, to get his opinion on what could determine the outcome of a tremendous two-legged tie between two of Europe’s elite clubs.

Being a former defender himself, Lahm believes the key to success will be in defense. “PSG are very strong individually,” Lahm said. “They have a very strong offense and are title defenders. Bayern’s attack, centered around Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Díaz, has been scoring goals for fun in both the Champions League and the Bundesliga. But this game will be decided in defense. That’s where Bayern Munich must be very disciplined. Shutting down PSG’s firepower will be what can win or break Bayern’s chances.” Obviously, the same is true for PSG, who might be without Portuguese midfield motor Vitinha in the first leg. His absence would be a major blow for PSG boss Luis Enrique.

PSG v Bayern: Man-marking approach a weakness?

Defensively, PSG certainly hold a slight edge, as they have conceded just 48 goals in 49 games across all competitions this season. Bayern Munich stand at 52 goals conceded in 49 games played across all competitions. The significant gulf between the two teams lies in attack. Bayern have scored an unbelievable 167 goals this season compared to PSG’s 115. With three games to go in the Bundesliga, Bayern, in fact, could break a record for the most goals scored in a domestic season.

While the sheer number of goals scored, there has still been criticism that Bayern have struggled to see out results in big games. “It has been an issue that they haven’t closed out games,” Lahm said. The former Bayern Munich legend felt that Bayern invited Real Madrid back into a tie that was pretty much won, gifting them two goals early on to get back into the game. But Lahm was also critical about the first leg. “It was the same in the first leg against Real Madrid as well. When Bayern were leading, they conceded that goal after Jude Bellingham came on. But it is hard not to concede chances against a team like that. The bigger factor was that they didn’t take their own chances and didn’t make three or four goals earlier to close out the game early.”

Another weakness in Lahm’s mind is Vincent Kompany’s man-marking approach. The 42-year-old feels it leaves Bayern open to counterattacks at times. “We saw it in the group stage as well,” Lahm said. “When Bayern play man marking across all positions, then you can get into situations in which there will be significant space to break into. One example is the first leg against Real Madrid when Jude Bellingham came on, and there were 20 to 30 meters of space to break into. You can stick to this approach, but I am also a fan of being situational and perhaps also defending the space.” Over 180 minutes or more could favor PSG.

Second leg in Munich – Advantage Bayern?

Under Enrique, PSG have become a team that is no longer dependent on individuals. Instead, Enrique’s setup is anchored on a flexible top three backed up by a midfield three without clear roles. The Spaniard has set up a system in which the front three of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé, and Désiré Doué, backed up by a midfield three of João Neves, Vitinha, and, in recent weeks, Warren Zaïre-Emery, can put constant pressure on defense. That variability in the attack could expose Bayern’s man-marking system, even if the Germans beat the Ligue 1 champions with a player down in the league stage of the competition last fall (2-1).

That game still looms large. Until Díaz was sent off just before halftime, Bayern dominated the affair. But that game was in November when PSG looked out of form. That is certainly not the case now as they saw off Liverpool without any problems in the quarterfinals. So, who will win this one? Ultimately, small margins will make the difference at this level. “Bayern have the advantage because they have the second leg at home,” Lahm said. “Obviously, so much will depend on the first leg, but thinking further, it has the potential to go all the way to extra time or even penalties, and then the home crowd is a big advantage. We saw it against Real Madrid, when they played the second leg at home, the atmosphere can make a big difference.”