Premier League future? 

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Transfermarkt’s world-renowned market values don’t just end in the Premier League and the Championship when it comes to English football. Each player in League One, the third tier, also has a market value attached to their name, and this Tuesday saw the latest League One market value update drop, as 626 players had their values adjusted.

Lincoln and Plymouth were promoted automatically in League One this season, whilst Bolton and Stockport hold 1-0 leads in the play-off semi-finals. We have picked out the five biggest winners from this Tuesday’s market value update and looked at what the future could hold for them. All are aged 24 or under and have been linked with clubs in higher divisions.

Five biggest winners from League One market value update

Amario Cozier-Duberry – Bolton (on loan from Brighton) – €5m

Leading the way as the biggest winner (+€2m) as well as the most valuable player in the league (€5m) is Bolton’s Amario Cozier-Duberry. On loan from Premier League club Brighton, the 20 year old has scored eight goals and provided 12 assists in 34 league games for the Wanderers and was named in the EFL League One Team of the Season. He also scored his team’s only goal in their 1-0 play-off semi-final first leg against Bradford. Reports suggest that the Seagulls are now trying to tie him down to a longer deal amid plenty of interest from other clubs in the Premier League and Championship.

Dom Ballard – Leyton Orient – €2m

No League One player has scored more than Dom Ballard’s 23 goals for Leyton Orient this term. When we consider that Orient finished 20th in the table, this achievement gains even more gravitas. He was awarded the EFL League One Player of the Season award. The 21-year-old striker was signed from Southampton last summer and has seen his market value rise from €800k to €2m in the latest update. Many Championship clubs are reportedly showing interest, with Wrexham the current favourites for his signature.

Lorent Tolaj – Plymouth – €1.8m

Swiss forward Lorent Tolaj has proved to be an astute piece of business for Plymouth. Argyle signed him for €1.4m and he has since gone on to score 18 league goals as his team just missed out on the play-offs. He has previously scored eight goals in just four games for Switzerland U19s and has now been linked with some Championship clubs. His values has risen by +€1m to €1.8m this May.

Dylan Lawlor – Cardiff – €1.8m

Despite only recently turning 10 years of age, centre-half Dylan Lawlor has been a regular for promoted Cardiff this term. Perhaps even more impressively, he has already been capped five times for the senior Wales national team. There has already been reported interest from Premier League and Championship clubs, although promotion may favour Cardiff keeping their prized asset for one more season. His value rises by +€600k to €1.8m.

Johnny Kenny – Bolton – €1.2m

The 22-year-old striker Johnny Kenny was signed on loan form Celtic in January by Bolton and has proved to be a difference maker scoring six goals in 14 appearances for the Wanderers. Unfortunately his season is now over after an injury blow, but he has certainly done his reputation no harm in Lancashire, and sees his market value rise by €600k to €1.2m.

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).