Mighty Minnows 

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The 2026 World Cup broke new ground when FIFA confirmed that the competition would be expanded from 32 to 48 teams back in 2017. Now that the tournament is well and truly underway, that has made for some interesting match-ups between nations that simply wouldn’t have been at a World Cup prior to this one. And, naturally, it also means that we’ll see some nations in the first knock-out round that have perhaps never even dreamed of such a feat.

As things currently stand, Algeria, Iran, Bosnia, and even Cape Verde are all still in the running for a spot in the next round and look well placed to advance from their group. And that would undoubtedly be a remarkable achievement for any of those national teams, considering that none of them ranks within the top 15 most valuable national teams at the World Cup. Ahead of some undoubted upsets across this year’s tournament, we’ve ranked the biggest upsets caused by underdogs in the World Cup group stages based on the national teams with the lowest squad market values.

Based on Transfermarkt’s extensive market values database, we can take a closer look at previous national teams that have defied expectations to progress from the group stage of World Cups. Ecuador’s 2006 squad stands alone at the top of this list as the most remarkable overachievement in modern tournament history, advancing with a squad valued at just €21.2m, less than half of the second-placed Costa Rica side that famously topped their group at Brazil 2014 with a market value of €30.1m. Australia’s 2022 World Cup squad, valued at €37.3m, completes the top three, while South Korea (€44.3m in 2010) and Mexico (€45.5m in 2006) round out the five least valuable national teams to ever to make it through. Notably, the 2010 South Africa World Cup was a particularly fertile tournament for underdog progression, with Ghana, Paraguay, Chile, Japan, and Slovakia all featuring in the top 20.

The list also underscores how certain nations have repeatedly punched above their market values. The United States appear twice in close succession, valued at €57.6m in 2010 and €57.8m in 2014, suggesting a consistent ability to qualify from groups despite modest squad market values relative to other competing nations. Mauricio Pochettino’s side haved repeated the trick this year, but will not feature in the top 20 list due to their squad market value now standing at an impressive €386m.

Ghana and Japan each feature twice as well, and both look likely to reach the next round of this year’s World Cup despite having the 25th and 22nd most valuable squads at the tournament. At the lower end of the top 20, the values begin to climb more steeply, with Nigeria (€82.9m) and Mexico’s 2010 side (€88.1m) rounding out the list, suggesting that €90m represents something of a modern baseline below which group-stage qualification becomes a genuine surprise – 14 national teams at this year’s World Cup have squad market values lower than that figure and many could yet qualify for the next round.